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Presidential Prediction

Prediction Markets

When a campaign still has months remaining, prediction markets — in which traders bet on event outcomes — have a substantially better record than polls at pointing to the eventual nominee. But the markets do have at least one weakness: They sometimes exaggerate the chances of unusual or long-shot candidates, like Donald Trump, perhaps because a few passionate traders can affect prices.

PredictWise Chance of Winning Democratic Nomination

1 Hillary Clinton 87.0% HillaryClinton
 
2 Bernie Sanders 12.0% BernieSanders
 
3 Martin O’Malley 1.0% MartinO’Malley
 
4 Lawrence Lessig 0.0% LawrenceLessig
 

PredictWise Chance of Winning Republican Nomination

1 Marco Rubio 35.0% MarcoRubio
 
2 Donald Trump 18.0% DonaldTrump
 
  Jeb Bush 18.0% JebBush
 
4 Ben Carson 8.0% BenCarson
 
5 Ted Cruz 6.0% TedCruz
 
6 Carly Fiorina 5.0% CarlyFiorina
 
7 Chris Christie 4.0% ChrisChristie
 
  John Kasich 4.0% JohnKasich
 
9 Mike Huckabee 2.0% MikeHuckabee
 
10 Rand Paul 1.0% RandPaul
 
11 Rick Santorum 0.0% RickSantorum
 
  Bobby Jindal 0.0% BobbyJindal
 
  Lindsey Graham 0.0% LindseyGraham
 
  George Pataki 0.0% GeorgePataki
 
  Jim Gilmore 0.0% JimGilmore
 
+ Show more candidates

PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster.


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